March 1, 2005

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AMARILLO – Don't expect a bumper yield on this year's wheat crop, even if it rains. But some wheat will pull through the drought.

Any surviving wheat, however, will have reduced yields, said Dr. Brent Bean, Texas Cooperative Extension agronomist in Amarillo. The amount of reduction will depend on what happens in the next couple of months. He estimated 60 percent to 70 percent of the crop planted for grain in the Panhandle will still be harvested.

"Of those (harvested) acres, however, we can expect them to have reduced yields," Bean said, attributing 80 percent to 90 percent of that loss to drought.

Wheat streak mosaic, greenbugs and Russian wheat aphids all could potentially reduce yields further, he said.

About 50 percent of the wheat grown in the Panhandle region is under dryland conditions, Bean said.

"Some of it is still hanging on and will make something," he said. "It still looks decent. But then there's some dryland that will be plowed up."

Rodney Mosier, executive vice president of Texas Wheat Producers Association, said statewide conditions are not looking too good, but some of the wheat can be brought around with a rain.

The statewide crop report estimates 3 percent is in good shape, 8 percent is fair, 63 percent poor, and 26 percent is in very poor condition, Mosier said.

In a typical year, about half of all the wheat planted will be harvested. Last year, producers harvested 3 million acres out of 5.5 million planted acres. This year, 5.8 million acres were seeded to wheat, but with current crop conditions, it's hard to say whether even one-third of that crop will be harvested, Mosier said.

"I think we may be seeing a 50-million-bushel crop this year, compared to a 96-million-bushel crop last year," he said.

Rain in some of these areas, such as Wichita Falls and maybe the Panhandle, could turn things around and the wheat could end up better than it looks now, Mosier said. "If it doesn't rain, we're not going to have a crop."

He said with the high natural gas prices, many producers who irrigate just can't afford to water, so the statewide situation with irrigated wheat is not looking much better.

Dr. Travis Miller, Extension program leader for soil and crop sciences in College Station, said he expects to see much larger than usual abandonment of wheat statewide.

The wheat east of Paris between Texarkana and the Red River was established in the fall and vernalized (chilled) properly, Miller said. He explained wheat requires a certain number of chilling hours, between 32 F to 45 F, before it can produce a head. Otherwise, it just comes up as a grass.

It will make a decent crop if it gets one more rain between now and when the head begins to fill with grain, he said, adding it is probably the best around the state.

A lot of wheat in Central, North and parts of Northeast Texas was planted in dry soil and received no moisture until late January, Miller said. The stands came up but have almost no yield potential because of lack of vernalization.

A lot of wheat in West Texas was over grazed, Miller said. Good stands came up with early moisture and producers turned the cattle out on it to graze. But no moisture fell and they had no hay, so the wheat was grazed off.

Miller said while the state normally harvests 55 percent or more of the wheat crop for grain, it will probably only be about 25 percent if conditions don't improve.

Two factors will determine whether wheat fields are abandoned or not, he said.

"In the northern Panhandle, if they still have a good stand and get rain within a couple of weeks, they still have a chance of making a reasonable wheat yield," Miller said. "But in South Texas, it's gone or dying. It's too late for a rain to help it."

But at this point, without a rain, it won't be planted to cotton or other crops either, he said.

"You don't throw good money after bad," Miller said. "Cotton is planted in March and April in South Texas and in May in the Panhandle. Sorghum can go even later. So if the rain comes in March or April, there's a good opportunity to plant cotton or sorghum."